Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 25 | 29 | 422 |
| OTT | 116 | 08 | 217 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:42TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:40TORDavid KampfAssists: John Tavares, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 3:35TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Max Domi, Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 5:14OTTJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 13:03TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake McCabe, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 18:07OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Jake Sanderson · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:25OTTRidly Greig: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:31TORConor Timmins: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:09TORSimon Benoit: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Domi – Robertson5:29
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies13:41
xG 0.73–0.72 (50%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Reaves – Domi – Robertson2:36
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf5:20
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Timmins8:00
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Brodie – McCabe2:19
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lajoie – Timmins6:32
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Batherson – Stützle16:13
xG 1.16–0.26 (82%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Chartier – MacEwen – Kelly3:24
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk13:35
xG 0.59–0.58 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig12:36
xG 0.23–0.98 (19%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub18:43
xG 1.09–0.56 (66%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chychrun14:57
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson16:11
xG 0.41–0.74 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).