Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Dallas Stars 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 114 | 212 | 02 | 1 | 538 |
| WSH | 16 | 213 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Connor McMichael, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:38DALTyler SeguinAssists: Sam Steel, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:31WSHDylan StromeAssists: Tom Wilson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 7:14WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Matthew Phillips, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 14:19DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 1:51DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 9:08WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 13:47DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 4. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:50DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:24WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 7:53DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 3:48DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
- OT 5:00DALJani Hakanpää: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston10:24
xG 0.79–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:36
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment13:08
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel10:33
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen15:24
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley4:24
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Hakanpää – Harley2:42
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome11:24
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Lapierre3:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Phillips – Lapierre9:43
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas10:03
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin16:42
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 11–21goals 2–2
- Carlson – Fehérváry17:24
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 14–25goals 0–1
- Jensen – Sandin2:19
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).