Sat, Dec 9, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 013 | 29 | 111 | 333 |
| BOS | 214 | 210 | 15 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:22BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 16:10BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 2:02BOSKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 2:50ARIClayton KellerAssists: Jason Zucker, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 3:22ARIMichael CarconeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 9:12BOSDanton HeinenGWGAssists: Matthew Poitras, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 3:20ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 14:29BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:22BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:18ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:06ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01BOSMatthew Poitras: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:25BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 1:03ARISean Durzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00BOSDanton Heinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:36BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Cooley – Kelemen5:22
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Cooley2:37
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Keller11:18
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Carcone3:03
xG 0.20–0.28 (43%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Moser6:39
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Dumba – Brown3:01
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Dermott5:40
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic4:41
xG 0.38–0.06 (85%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Geekie3:18
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – DeBrusk – Geekie3:38
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Heinen2:47
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Mitchell13:51
xG 1.11–0.78 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Shattenkirk – Lohrei9:39
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Carlo2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).