Mon, Dec 11, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 114 | 115 | 02 | 340 |
| NYI | 213 | 111 | 04 | 11 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 9:20NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:33NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Hudson Fasching · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:10NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 7:43TORJohn TavaresAssists: Conor Timmins, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:53TORMorgan RiellyAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:46NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:47NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:39TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies13:41
xG 0.81–0.65 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf2:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson8:24
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner12:34
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:33
xG 0.82–0.52 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Brodie – Lagesson2:19
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Lagesson3:08
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal13:42
xG 1.02–0.56 (65%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching10:22
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom9:10
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:02
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov21:06
xG 1.12–0.41 (73%)attempts 27–17goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Bolduc11:02
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Reilly – Mayfield16:51
xG 1.20–1.06 (53%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).