Mon, Dec 11, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Calgary Flames 5, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 414 | 011 | 532 |
| COL | 115 | 28 | 315 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:46CGYNazem KadriAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:14COLTomas TatarAssists: Ross Colton, Fredrik Olofsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 1:43COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 5:14CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dennis Gilbert · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 13:21CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Gilbert · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 14:57COLBen MeyersAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 16:19CGYConnor ZaryAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Bat, 0.25 xG4–3
- P2 18:34CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 11:20COLRoss ColtonAssists: Josh Manson, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 13:31COLMikko RantanenAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–5
- P3 15:30COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:15CGYNoah Hanifin: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:35CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:33CGYNoah Hanifin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:51CGYIlya Solovyov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:41COLMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P2 18:18COLAlexandar Georgiev: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:18CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:04
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Sharangovich – Zary7:47
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau9:14
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Greer – Ruzicka – Pospisil2:45
xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Solovyov6:22
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Solovyov4:52
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Gilbert7:18
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Olofsson – Meyers4:59
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen15:34
xG 0.96–0.97 (50%)attempts 30–22goals 2–2
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor6:40
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin5:45
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram5:50
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Manson – Byram8:29
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 13–5goals 2–1
- Toews – Byram3:51
xG 0.05–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).