Tue, Dec 12, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 411 | 08 | 311 | 730 |
| NYR | 13 | 215 | 013 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 5:07TORConor TimminsAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 5:42NYRBlake WheelerUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 15:20TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: John Tavares · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–1
- P1 15:41TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, William Lagesson · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 16:30NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 18:26NYRBlake WheelerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 1:29TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 17:11TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 18:33TORDavid KampfENAssists: TJ Brodie, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.78 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:00NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:46TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:27TORWilliam Lagesson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:56TORConor Timmins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:22NYRErik Gustafsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03NYRMika Zibanejad: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03NYRMika Zibanejad: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Marner7:19
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson3:19
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Robertson2:12
xG 0.01–0.27 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lajoie – Timmins2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit6:56
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Lagesson9:24
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Goodrow – Vesey10:12
xG 0.72–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad8:25
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:57
xG 1.04–1.18 (47%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle7:25
xG 0.14–0.30 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:21
xG 1.09–0.20 (85%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Fox2:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Trouba – Lindgren2:55
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).