Tue, Dec 12, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 27 | 010 | 04 | 221 |
| PIT | 214 | 017 | 212 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Valtteri Puustinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:20ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Jason Zucker, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 15:24ARIMatias MaccelliPPAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 16:54PITJeff CarterSHAssists: Drew O'Connor · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:23PITJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:37PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:48ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:31PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27ARILiam O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P1 10:31PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:50ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:56PITTristan Jarry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:47PITErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:59PITJeff Carter: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:25ARIMichael Kesselring: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:57PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P3 12:32ARIJason Zucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Cooley – Kelemen5:00
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Cooley2:31
xG 0.00–0.03 (3%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Keller11:55
xG 0.60–0.69 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Sanford – Carcone5:06
xG 0.14–0.71 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stecher – Välimäki10:48
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Dumba – Moser12:24
xG 0.57–0.78 (42%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Dermott – Kesselring9:56
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Hinostroza – Zohorna6:30
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – O'Connor12:20
xG 1.20–0.71 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen8:46
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Smith2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:57
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves11:38
xG 1.15–0.87 (57%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Joseph – Ludvig6:55
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).