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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 12, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Arizona Coyotes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.

PIT winsARI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:45Shot by Crosby, saved by Ingram
  3. P1 0:48Kesselring: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Pettersson, O'Connor · ARI Bjugstad, Dermott, Crouse, Kesselring, Maccelli

  4. P1 1:02Shot by Karlsson, saved by Ingram5v4
  5. P1 1:12Goal by Guentzel (Crosby, Puustinen)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Puustinen · ARI Bjugstad, Kerfoot, Stecher, Moser

  6. P1 4:00Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ingram
  7. P1 4:30Shot by Crosby, saved by Ingram
  8. P1 5:40Shot by Malkin, saved by Ingram
  9. P1 6:04Shot by Eller, saved by Ingram
  10. P1 6:22Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  11. P1 9:19Shot by Karlsson, saved by Ingram
  12. P1 9:31Karlsson: Slashing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Pettersson, O'Connor · ARI Bjugstad, Dumba, Crouse, Maccelli, Moser, Cooley

  13. P1 9:41Shot by Keller, saved by Jarry4v5
  14. P1 10:20Goal by Crouse (Zucker, Välimäki)4v5+17 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Eller, Graves, Ludvig, O'Connor · ARI Zucker, Bjugstad, Crouse, Välimäki, Maccelli

  15. P1 10:27O'Brien: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Smith, Joseph, Ludvig, Puustinen · ARI Dumba, Kerfoot, O'Brien, Carcone, Moser

  16. P1 10:31Crosby: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Puustinen · ARI Bjugstad, Kerfoot, Stecher, Moser

  17. P1 10:50Bjugstad: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Carter, Malkin, Letang, Guentzel, Joseph · ARI Bjugstad, Dumba, Crouse, Moser

  18. P1 11:03Shot by Malkin, saved by Ingram4v3
  19. P1 11:42Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ingram4v3
  20. P1 12:09Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ingram4v3
  21. P1 12:40Shot by Crouse, saved by Jarry5v4
  22. P1 13:54Shot by Zucker, saved by Jarry
  23. P1 13:56Jarry: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Graves, Harkins, Gruden, Ludvig, Zohorna · ARI Zucker, Schmaltz, Keller, Välimäki, Kesselring

  24. P1 14:23Shot by Keller, saved by Jarry4v5
  25. P1 15:24Goal by Maccelli (Crouse, Bjugstad)4v5+17 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Eller, Graves, Ludvig, O'Connor · ARI Zucker, Bjugstad, Crouse, Välimäki, Maccelli

  26. P1 15:47Karlsson: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Hinostroza, Guentzel, Joseph · ARI Dumba, Kerfoot, O'Brien, Carcone, Moser

  27. P1 16:54Goal by Carter (O'Connor)4v5+18 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Graves, Joseph, O'Connor · ARI Kerfoot, Schmaltz, Keller, Moser, Cooley

  28. P1 18:36Shot by Karlsson, saved by Ingram
  29. P1 19:28Shot by Maccelli, saved by Jarry
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:05Shot by Dumba, saved by Jarry
  33. P2 1:11Shot by Smith, saved by Ingram
  34. P2 2:36Shot by O'Brien, saved by Jarry
  35. P2 3:12Shot by Letang, saved by Ingram
  36. P2 3:22Shot by Bjugstad, saved by Jarry
  37. P2 4:20Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ingram
  38. P2 4:32Shot by Keller, saved by Jarry
  39. P2 4:49Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  40. P2 4:50Shot by Zohorna, saved by Ingram
  41. P2 5:52Shot by Kelemen, saved by Jarry
  42. P2 6:00Shot by Kesselring, saved by Jarry
  43. P2 6:27Shot by Puustinen, saved by Ingram
  44. P2 6:58Shot by Malkin, saved by Ingram
  45. P2 8:06Shot by Carcone, saved by Jarry
  46. P2 8:23Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  47. P2 8:46Shot by Zohorna, saved by Ingram
  48. P2 9:45Shot by Carter, saved by Ingram
  49. P2 9:59Carter: Boarding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Carter, Malkin, Letang, Smith, Joseph · ARI O'Brien, Crouse, Stecher, Välimäki, Maccelli, Cooley

  50. P2 11:25Shot by Moser, saved by Jarry4v5
  51. P2 12:54Shot by Ludvig, saved by Ingram
  52. P2 15:12Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  53. P2 15:23Shot by Letang, saved by Ingram
  54. P2 15:37Shot by Crosby, saved by Ingram
  55. P2 15:40Shot by O'Connor, saved by Ingram
  56. P2 15:41Shot by O'Connor, saved by Ingram
  57. P2 18:40Shot by O'Connor, saved by Ingram
  58. P2 19:52Shot by Dermott, saved by Jarry
  59. P2 19:59Shot by Zucker, saved by Jarry
  60. P2 0:00Period end
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 2:18Shot by Ludvig, saved by Ingram
  63. P3 2:22Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  64. P3 2:25Kesselring: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Hinostroza, Harkins, Gruden, Ludvig · ARI O'Brien, Dermott, Kesselring, Cooley, Kelemen

  65. P3 4:23Goal by Carter (Letang, Smith)5v4+27 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Letang, Eller, Smith, Hinostroza · ARI Bjugstad, Kerfoot, Stecher, Moser

  66. P3 4:29Shot by O'Connor, saved by Ingram
  67. P3 6:10Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Ingram
  68. P3 6:49Shot by Zucker, saved by Jarry
  69. P3 6:59Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ingram
  70. P3 9:58Shot by Crosby, saved by Ingram
  71. P3 10:02Shot by Letang, saved by Ingram
  72. P3 10:57Letang: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Carter, Eller, Graves, Pettersson, Zohorna · ARI Zucker, Kerfoot, Schmaltz, Keller, Välimäki, Moser

  73. P3 12:32Zucker: Too many men on the ice (2 min)4v5

    On ice: PIT Eller, Smith, Graves, Joseph · ARI Zucker, Bjugstad, Crouse, Välimäki, Maccelli

  74. P3 13:23Shot by Dumba, saved by Jarry5v4
  75. P3 14:11Shot by Malkin, saved by Ingram5v4
  76. P3 15:00Shot by Eller, saved by Ingram
  77. P3 17:51Shot by Maccelli, saved by Jarry5v6
  78. P3 18:22Shot by Keller, saved by Jarry5v6
  79. P3 18:37Goal by Guentzel (Malkin, Pettersson)5v6+4 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Guentzel, Graves · ARI Bjugstad, Schmaltz, Crouse, Keller, Maccelli, Moser

  80. P3 19:59Shot by O'Connor, saved by Ingram
  81. P3 0:00Period end
  82. P3 0:00Final