Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 07 | 510 | 724 |
| EDM | 015 | 323 | 119 | 457 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nick Paul, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:17TBLTyler MotteAssists: Darren Raddysh, Michael Eyssimont · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 1:23EDMDarnell NurseSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 7:20EDMConnor McDavidPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 10:02EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 6:48TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Haydn Fleury, Conor Sheary · Bat, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 12:47TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 14:02TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 17:38EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 18:27TBLAnthony CirelliENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–4
- P3 19:53TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.65 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:52EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:15TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:07EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:22TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12TBLCalvin de Haan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:26TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel9:08
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Jeannot3:04
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Eyssimont5:19
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet6:15
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh5:51
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Perbix5:00
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fleury – Raddysh7:49
xG 0.15–0.30 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Draisaitl – Foegele9:57
xG 1.26–0.36 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:30
xG 0.96–0.31 (76%)attempts 20–5goals 0–1
- Gagner – Ryan – Hamblin5:48
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Brown – McLeod9:40
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:07
xG 1.56–0.23 (87%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse17:31
xG 1.13–0.83 (58%)attempts 22–17goals 0–2
- Kulak – Desharnais11:17
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).