Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 018 | 09 | 038 |
| TOR | 311 | 314 | 110 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Max Domi · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:15TORMitch MarnerAssists: Nick Robertson, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 18:25TORBobby McMannAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 2:28TORMax DomiAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 4:25TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–5
- P2 14:04TORNoah GregorPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–6
- P3 14:19TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Jake McCabe · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:57TORMatthew Knies: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:57PITJohn Ludvig: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:19PITLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:06TORTimothy Liljegren: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:46PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min
- P1 14:01PITReilly Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:06PITKris Letang: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06PITKris Letang: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:13TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:06PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:52PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:52TORConor Timmins: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:08TORMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – O'Connor2:21
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Gruden – Zohorna2:41
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Harkins4:57
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Puustinen4:11
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Ludvig3:56
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson10:32
xG 1.00–0.74 (57%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Letang – Ludvig5:52
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander8:02
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann5:45
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Domi – Marner – Knies5:17
xG 0.31–0.46 (41%)attempts 4–11goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf9:10
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Lagesson9:19
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Timmins – Benoit11:46
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Rielly – Liljegren7:49
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).