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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.

TOR winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:52Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  3. P1 0:53Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  4. P1 1:16Shot by Puustinen, saved by Jones
  5. P1 1:57Goal by Knies (Domi)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Domi, Marner, Timmins, Benoit, Knies · PIT Crosby, Letang, Guentzel, Graves, O'Connor

  6. P1 4:57Knies: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Lagesson, Marner, Knies · PIT Carter, Harkins, Joseph, Gruden, Ludvig

  7. P1 4:57Ludvig: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Lagesson, Marner, Knies · PIT Carter, Harkins, Joseph, Gruden, Ludvig

  8. P1 5:19Benoit: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Timmins, Benoit · PIT Eller, Karlsson, Hinostroza, Pettersson, Zohorna

  9. P1 5:19Eller: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Timmins, Benoit · PIT Eller, Karlsson, Hinostroza, Pettersson, Zohorna

  10. P1 7:57Shot by Marner, saved by Jarry
  11. P1 10:15Goal by Marner (Robertson, Domi)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Marner, Benoit, Robertson · PIT Carter, Letang, Harkins, Joseph, Gruden

  12. P1 10:44Shot by Ludvig, saved by Jones
  13. P1 12:08Shot by Joseph, saved by Jones
  14. P1 12:13Shot by Karlsson, saved by Jones
  15. P1 12:28Shot by Crosby, saved by Jones
  16. P1 13:02Shot by Crosby, saved by Jones5v6
  17. P1 13:06Liljegren: Slashing (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Marner, Liljegren · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Pettersson, O'Connor

  18. P1 13:11Shot by Guentzel, saved by Jones4v5
  19. P1 13:46Guentzel: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, McCabe, Gregor · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Puustinen

  20. P1 13:50Shot by Timmins, saved by Jarry4v4
  21. P1 14:01Smith: Slashing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Nylander, Timmins · PIT Letang, Eller, Smith, Pettersson

  22. P1 15:19Shot by Eller, saved by Jones5v3
  23. P1 15:42Shot by Rielly, saved by Jarry5v3
  24. P1 15:43Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry5v3
  25. P1 18:06Shot by McMann, saved by Jarry
  26. P1 18:22Shot by Holmberg, saved by Jarry
  27. P1 18:25Goal by McMann (Bertuzzi, Holmberg)+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Bertuzzi, Timmins, Holmberg, McMann · PIT Letang, Eller, Hinostroza, Graves, Zohorna

  28. P1 19:04Shot by Malkin, saved by Jones
  29. P1 19:11Shot by Ludvig, saved by Jones
  30. P1 19:41Shot by Crosby, saved by Jones
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 0:47Shot by Pettersson, saved by Jones
  34. P2 1:02Shot by Karlsson, saved by Jones
  35. P2 1:10Shot by Pettersson, saved by Jones
  36. P2 1:20Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  37. P2 2:02Shot by Nylander, saved by Jarry
  38. P2 2:28Goal by Domi (Knies, Marner)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Lagesson, Marner, Knies · PIT Crosby, Letang, Guentzel, Ludvig, Puustinen

  39. P2 2:48Shot by Guentzel, saved by Jones
  40. P2 4:03Shot by McMann, saved by Nedeljkovic
  41. P2 4:06Letang: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Lagesson, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · PIT Carter, Letang, Eller, Pettersson, Harkins

  42. P2 4:06Letang: Misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Lagesson, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · PIT Carter, Letang, Eller, Pettersson, Harkins

  43. P2 4:15Shot by Marner, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  44. P2 4:20Shot by Nylander, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  45. P2 4:25Goal by Tavares (Nylander, Rielly)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Marner · PIT Pettersson, Gruden, Ludvig, O'Connor

  46. P2 4:55Shot by Graves, saved by Jones
  47. P2 6:06Shot by O'Connor, saved by Jones
  48. P2 6:20Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  49. P2 6:21Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  50. P2 6:32Shot by Puustinen, saved by Jones
  51. P2 6:39Shot by Nylander, saved by Nedeljkovic
  52. P2 7:13Holmberg: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Lagesson, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · PIT Carter, Malkin, Eller, Harkins, Joseph, Ludvig

  53. P2 7:55Shot by Puustinen, saved by Jones4v5
  54. P2 9:08Shot by Crosby, saved by Jones4v5
  55. P2 9:28Shot by Crosby, saved by Jones
  56. P2 9:54Shot by Pettersson, saved by Jones
  57. P2 10:59Shot by Carter, saved by Jones
  58. P2 11:05Shot by Joseph, saved by Jones
  59. P2 11:56Shot by O'Connor, saved by Jones
  60. P2 12:06Malkin: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Liljegren · PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Smith, Pettersson, O'Connor

  61. P2 13:40Shot by Knies, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  62. P2 14:04Goal by Gregor (Bertuzzi, Timmins)5v40 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Lagesson, Gregor, Kampf · PIT Crosby, Guentzel, Graves, Pettersson

  63. P2 14:42Guentzel: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Marner, Kampf · PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Guentzel, Graves, O'Connor

  64. P2 15:13Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  65. P2 15:16Shot by Rielly, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  66. P2 17:06Shot by Joseph, saved by Jones
  67. P2 17:36Shot by O'Connor, saved by Jones
  68. P2 18:52Crosby: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Timmins · PIT Crosby, Letang, Guentzel, Ludvig, Puustinen

  69. P2 18:52Timmins: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Timmins · PIT Crosby, Letang, Guentzel, Ludvig, Puustinen

  70. P2 19:42Shot by Malkin, saved by Jones4v4
  71. P2 19:44Shot by Smith, saved by Jones4v4
  72. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  73. P3 0:00Period start
  74. P3 0:21Shot by Rielly, saved by Nedeljkovic4v4
  75. P3 1:14Shot by Gregor, saved by Nedeljkovic
  76. P3 1:35Shot by Pettersson, saved by Jones
  77. P3 2:08Domi: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Lagesson, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Eller, Karlsson, Guentzel, Pettersson

  78. P3 2:25Shot by Puustinen, saved by Jones4v5
  79. P3 3:39Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Jones4v5
  80. P3 3:47Shot by Puustinen, saved by Jones4v5
  81. P3 4:20Shot by Benoit, saved by Nedeljkovic
  82. P3 5:44Shot by McMann, saved by Nedeljkovic
  83. P3 5:49Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  84. P3 8:24Shot by Hinostroza, saved by Jones
  85. P3 9:07Malkin: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lagesson, Gregor, Kampf · PIT Malkin, Letang, Smith, Ludvig, Puustinen

  86. P3 10:11Shot by Robertson, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  87. P3 11:58Shot by Timmins, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  88. P3 13:26Shot by Pettersson, saved by Jones
  89. P3 13:45Shot by Karlsson, saved by Jones
  90. P3 14:19Goal by Nylander (Bertuzzi, McCabe)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Lagesson · PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, Pettersson, O'Connor

  91. P3 18:20Shot by Timmins, saved by Nedeljkovic
  92. P3 18:30Shot by Gregor, saved by Nedeljkovic
  93. P3 18:58Shot by Eller, saved by Jones
  94. P3 19:11Shot by Eller, saved by Jones
  95. P3 0:00Period end
  96. P3 0:00Final