Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 25 | 111 | 430 |
| CBJ | 014 | 15 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:22CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 2:58TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:21TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 11:51TORWilliam NylanderSHAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:16CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:16TORTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:06TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:06CBJAdam Fantilli: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:33CBJAdam Fantilli: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14TORBobby McMann: Holding2 min
- P2 14:34TORTyler Bertuzzi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:47TORNoah Gregor: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:06TORMax Domi: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:27CBJJustin Danforth: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies9:01
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann8:44
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson6:20
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander7:58
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – McCabe2:02
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly11:39
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Brodie – Liljegren2:14
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger7:34
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Gaunce – Texier4:13
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli11:34
xG 0.77–0.81 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gaunce – Texier – Sillinger2:06
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Werenski6:30
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Provorov – Jiricek3:10
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Peeke2:18
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).