Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 19 | 112 | 331 |
| TBL | 09 | 010 | 210 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P2 1:24FLASam ReinhartAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 0:29TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Perbix · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:11FLASam ReinhartSHGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 3:31TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:57FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P1 13:18FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:38TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:38FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:27FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:27FLANick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:27TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:23FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Verhaeghe won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:42
xG 0.70–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood5:13
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell8:44
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:21
xG 0.54–0.73 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola14:48
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov10:42
xG 0.34–0.62 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:44
xG 0.12–0.71 (15%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel10:46
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Watson – Motte – Sheary5:33
xG 0.24–0.28 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:18
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Point13:11
xG 0.65–1.05 (38%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh10:16
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix14:28
xG 0.80–0.77 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak13:24
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 5–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).