Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Colorado Avalanche 4, Arizona Coyotes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 312 | 04 | 02 | 424 |
| ARI | 09 | 16 | 37 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:16COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:04COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Ross Colton, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 7:56COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Josh Manson, Bowen Byram · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 13:26COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 16:31ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 3:48ARIMichael KesselringAssists: Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 7:04ARIJason ZuckerAssists: Sean Durzi, Logan Cooley · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 17:53ARISean DurziAssists: Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- OT 4:40ARIJack McBainGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Sean Durzi · Bat, 0.34 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:45ARIJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:45COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:32ARIJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:44ARIMichael Carcone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19ARIMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Drouin – Colton7:03
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – O'Connor7:35
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:00
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Wood – Drouin2:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Toews9:18
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar7:58
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Manson – Byram4:13
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:00
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Zucker – O'Brien – Cooley8:41
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Sanford – Carcone – McBain7:52
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller12:56
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Dermott13:45
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Stecher – Välimäki13:44
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Durzi – Kesselring14:00
xG 0.74–0.72 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).