Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 018 | 016 | 146 |
| OTT | 218 | 25 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51OTTJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:38OTTZack MacEwenGWGAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:46BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 7:18OTTDominik KubalikAssists: Ridly Greig, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 19:44OTTMark KastelicAssists: Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 15:16OTTArtem ZubENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.57 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:53BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P2 16:41OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:32OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:32BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs4:57
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson11:36
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:16
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka6:43
xG 0.12–0.59 (16%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Johnson12:22
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Power12:40
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin16:23
xG 0.58–0.85 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Kelly – Greig7:27
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk8:44
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle11:02
xG 0.38–0.86 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker10:12
xG 0.68–0.64 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Chychrun11:18
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub9:43
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).