Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 213 | 17 | 329 |
| TBL | 04 | 27 | 29 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 11:59MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Samuel Montembeault · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P2 14:01TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nick Paul, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:36TBLAustin WatsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 7:49TBLCalvin de HaanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:54TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 17:55MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:50MTLMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:32MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:07MTLJosh Anderson: Charging2 min
- P2 4:07TBLLuke Glendening: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:07MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:07TBLLuke Glendening: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:07TBLLuke Glendening: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 10:21MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03TBLTanner Jeannot: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský16:03
xG 1.09–0.95 (53%)attempts 23–14goals 1–2
- Gallagher – Monahan – Evans2:13
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans6:22
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Armia – Monahan – Ylonen2:04
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Matheson14:17
xG 1.34–0.47 (74%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Harris – Guhle3:04
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Savard – Guhle3:39
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Point – Hagel5:40
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel3:36
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel4:17
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Motte – Eyssimont – Barré-Boulet4:59
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh8:40
xG 0.92–0.63 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- de Haan – Perbix5:55
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- de Haan – Raddysh10:50
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).