Tue, Jan 2, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 411 | 08 | 03 | 422 |
| PIT | 16 | 216 | 013 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55WSHTom WilsonAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:16WSHBeck MalenstynAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:02WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Dylan Strome, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 19:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
- P1 19:56PITRickard RakellAssists: Erik Karlsson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 9:11PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Bat, 0.26 xG4–2
- P2 18:54PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:45PITValtteri Puustinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:32WSHJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45PITJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:28WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P3 10:40WSHEthan Bear: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas10:48
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn10:36
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Strome – Phillips – Lapierre6:38
xG 0.53–0.67 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:16
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Bear3:58
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Carlson – Edmundson2:03
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:03
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Rust11:30
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Puustinen – O'Connor6:14
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:10
xG 0.66–0.65 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari7:56
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Joseph9:44
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Graves5:03
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves6:44
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).