Tue, Jan 2, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 114 | 39 | 531 |
| SJS | 111 | 18 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11DETDaniel SprongPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:50SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 6:07DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Justin Holl, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 18:54SJSJustin BaileyAssists: Mario Ferraro · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 9:24SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Mario Ferraro, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 10:55DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 18:30DETDavid PerronGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:54DETMichael RasmussenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:18SJSCalen Addison: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12SJSCalen Addison: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:12DETLucas Raymond: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:11SJSTy Emberson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:56DETJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:53SJSJan Rutta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:41SJSWilliam Eklund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Raymond9:44
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong7:28
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Veleno10:15
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–3
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat7:44
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Maatta8:52
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere2:02
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Maatta5:11
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Granlund – Zetterlund11:32
xG 1.02–0.19 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hertl – Duclair – Eklund10:08
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Zadina5:29
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Kunin – Studnicka – Barabanov6:21
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun12:16
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Emberson15:24
xG 1.05–0.82 (56%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Burroughs – Addison10:28
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).