Sat, Jan 6, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Florida Panthers 8, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 310 | 17 | 412 | 829 |
| COL | 08 | 314 | 14 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 3:02FLASam ReinhartAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 7:41FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 0:21COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 0:52COLJosh MansonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Logan O'Connor · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 4:35COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 8:50FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 3:31COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 5:59FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 8:59FLAKevin StenlundAssists: Ryan Lomberg · Backhand, 0.05 xG6–4
- P3 16:17FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.00 xG7–4
- P3 16:54FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.62 xG8–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:48FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:59COLFredrik Olofsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:00COLSamuel Girard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:56FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47COLRoss Colton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:13COLLogan O'Connor: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:56COLKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:07
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Lomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell5:38
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Luostarinen3:11
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lockwood – Gadjovich4:35
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:04
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov12:53
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola14:11
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Colton – O'Connor8:43
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Johansen – Kiviranta6:13
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Meyers4:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen13:43
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Jones7:17
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:45
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews2:13
xG 0.01–0.07 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).