Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 01 | 18 | 06 | 115 |
| PHI | 114 | 116 | 313 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00PHISean WalkerAssists: Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:03PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 12:42DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 0:44PHICam AtkinsonPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Travis Sanheim · Bat, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 9:16PHIScott LaughtonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 14:30PHIOwen TippettUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:46PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:34DALJason Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:06DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:06DALThomas Harley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40PHITyson Foerster: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:02DALRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:16DALJoel Hanley: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston10:24
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:50
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel10:05
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Smith – Faksa8:22
xG 0.01–0.83 (2%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley4:05
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Suter – Lindell2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist11:22
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Frost – Farabee8:46
xG 0.63–0.01 (98%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Tippett – Poehling – Cates2:15
xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Poehling – Cates2:01
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Foerster10:44
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Zamula6:09
xG 0.73–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale5:23
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker5:29
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).