Tue, Jan 23, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 25 | 28 | 28 | 621 |
| PHI | 07 | 214 | 111 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46TBLBrayden PointAssists: Max Crozier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 2:24TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 9:56PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Walker · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 14:04PHIJamie DrysdalePPAssists: Morgan Frost, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:42TBLMichael EyssimontPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 0:42PHICam YorkAssists: Morgan Frost · Bat, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 19:00TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
- P3 19:49TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:35TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:43PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:36PHISean Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:11PHICam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Glendening – Motte – Barré-Boulet6:21
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Sheary2:47
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont11:23
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point10:59
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Perbix10:02
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Crozier – Lilleberg10:19
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- de Haan – Myers2:50
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster10:36
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee9:24
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Lycksell4:04
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Foerster2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker3:36
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale11:38
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- York – Drysdale3:25
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).