Wed, Jan 24, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 020 | 28 | 233 |
| FLA | 316 | 212 | 114 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:44FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 9:01FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 4:14FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 18:17FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.16 xG0–5
- P3 2:27FLAJonah GadjovichAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–6
- P3 3:25ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.14 xG1–6
- P3 16:58ARILogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, Matias Maccelli · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (27)
- P1 0:05FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:05ARIJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:47FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P1 8:18ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:30FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41ARIDylan Guenther: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:42ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P2 18:55FLAJonah Gadjovich: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14ARILogan Cooley: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:12FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:42FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:27ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27ARIJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27ARIJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLAJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLAJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Lomberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Guenther – Cooley5:58
xG 0.69–0.41 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller5:35
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Maccelli5:36
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Carcone2:16
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser9:36
xG 1.10–0.62 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Välimäki – Kesselring10:50
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Moser2:44
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:30
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich4:48
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:44
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell6:26
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov9:15
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola14:02
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola2:19
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).