Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 04 | 314 | 324 |
| TBL | 09 | 219 | 414 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:09TBLNick PaulAssists: Victor Hedman, Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:40TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 2:49NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Nico Hischier, Santeri Hatakka · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 3:49TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nick Perbix, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 7:19NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 13:52TBLBrayden PointGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 17:22NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Ondrej Palat, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 18:21TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
- P3 19:06TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:59NJDKevin Bahl: Holding2 min
- P2 4:28NJDColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:16NJDJohn Marino: Holding2 min
- P3 10:47TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Motte won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier4:59
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Lazar – Bastian4:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (11%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tierney – Willman – Holtz8:16
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier6:16
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec2:18
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Hatakka10:51
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Marino – Hughes15:24
xG 0.20–1.12 (15%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point12:52
xG 1.33–0.28 (83%)attempts 25–8goals 2–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel13:12
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 2–2
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont8:16
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Chaffee – Merela7:46
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Lilleberg14:30
xG 0.91–0.19 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- de Haan – Perbix15:31
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh14:09
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).