Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 014 | 38 | 430 |
| WPG | 17 | 012 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13WPGDylan SambergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:11TORRyan ReavesAssists: Noah Gregor · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:54TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 15:28TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:22TORSimon BenoitENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 19:48WPGMason AppletonAssists: Alex Iafallo, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 19:40TORRyan Reaves: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:02TORNick Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:25TORTimothy Liljegren: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:19WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:05WPGNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:05TORTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:25TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39WPGNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:09WPGDylan Samberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:48WPGMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:48WPGNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:48TORRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:48TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:15
xG 1.01–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Domi – Holmberg – Robertson7:48
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies11:03
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf7:14
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit11:57
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren2:16
xG 0.05–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Liljegren9:43
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestVilardi – Kupari – Perfetti7:29
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Connor8:18
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Toninato – Iafallo – Barron5:08
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:52
xG 0.33–0.60 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk6:09
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk4:41
xG 0.73–0.48 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Samberg7:03
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).