Tue, Feb 6, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 14 | 018 | 230 |
| BUF | 016 | 116 | 016 | 148 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:53BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:04DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Craig Smith · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:34BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:39DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:48DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 13:58DALSam Steel: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:43DALMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
- P3 7:07BUFJordan Greenway: Holding2 min
- P3 7:49BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:28BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston10:51
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Dadonov3:50
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel2:12
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel4:14
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist8:40
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:06
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley14:13
xG 0.46–0.83 (35%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson9:14
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Robinson – Krebs6:44
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson8:44
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Tuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt10:31
xG 0.34–0.70 (32%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin15:40
xG 0.95–0.31 (75%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson5:30
xG 0.51–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Clifton – Power12:05
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).