Sat, Feb 10, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 112 | 115 | 335 |
| OTT | 110 | 310 | 112 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:53OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 2:04OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Shane Pinto, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 9:43TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 11:13OTTShane PintoAssists: Parker Kelly, Artem Zub · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:13OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 5:12TORMax DomiAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 19:54OTTRidly GreigENAssists: Shane Pinto · Slap, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 18:08TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:49TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:54TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:54TORMorgan Rielly: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Gregor – Robertson10:48
xG 1.37–0.40 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies12:47
xG 1.23–0.52 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Reaves – Holmberg – McMann6:06
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander12:03
xG 0.93–1.38 (40%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly17:29
xG 1.64–0.44 (79%)attempts 28–12goals 2–0
- Lagesson – Liljegren9:32
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- McCabe – Liljegren5:29
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Pinto – Greig12:14
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly5:55
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:52
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle11:37
xG 0.82–1.39 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub18:41
xG 1.72–0.96 (64%)attempts 34–18goals 3–1
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker17:28
xG 1.09–1.42 (43%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brannstrom11:47
xG 0.16–1.27 (11%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).