Sat, Feb 10, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 4, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 112 | 26 | 01 | 431 |
| NSH | 110 | 19 | 217 | 11 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:28NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:10ARITravis DermottAssists: Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:39NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:31ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 1:45ARIJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Dylan Guenther, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 4:07ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 6:00NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 9:59NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
- OT 1:36NSHRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:14NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:21ARITravis Dermott: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:32ARISean Durzi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:48ARIJack McBain: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:08NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:52ARIMatias Maccelli: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:57ARIBarrett Hayton: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:32NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00NSHCole Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:19ARINick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – McBain9:55
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – O'Brien7:32
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Hayton – Guenther – Cooley7:23
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:52
xG 0.32–0.88 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Välimäki3:34
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser13:14
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring6:27
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:31
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Smith2:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Glass2:38
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Evangelista3:31
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn11:06
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Josi3:05
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Josi – Barrie13:56
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).