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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Florida Panthers 9, Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Away

Florida Panthers

9

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA4142838930
TBL1901615230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:24TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:01FLABrandon MontourAssists: Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P1 12:28FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:44FLAKevin StenlundGWGAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Josh Mahura · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P1 18:38FLAGustav ForslingUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
  6. P2 0:23FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
  7. P2 1:37FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Deflected, 0.14 xG6–1
  8. P3 1:05FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–1
  9. P3 1:56FLASam BennettPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.38 xG8–1
  10. P3 4:09FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.20 xG9–1
  11. P3 10:51TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.06 xG9–2
Penalties (28)
  1. P1 13:15FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 13:15TBLAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 18:38TBLAustin Watson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
  4. P2 0:45TBLTyler Motte: Roughing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:07FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 14:26FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 18:26TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 18:26FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 1:24TBLErik Cernak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 4:53FLAKevin Stenlund: Holding2 min
  11. P3 10:28FLANiko Mikkola: Boarding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 13:22FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 13:22TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 13:22TBLErik Cernak: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 13:22FLAJonah Gadjovich: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 16:07TBLAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  17. P3 16:07FLASam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 16:07FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
  19. P3 16:07FLANick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 16:07TBLTyler Motte: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 16:07TBLHaydn Fleury: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 16:07FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 16:07TBLMichael Eyssimont: Misconduct10 min
  24. P3 16:07TBLAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
  25. P3 16:07FLANiko Mikkola: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 16:07TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 18:42TBLBrandon Hagel: Misconduct10 min
  28. P3 18:42FLAAnton Lundell: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
46% to win54% to win
← FLA attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Cirelli
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATBL
30Shots on goal30
2.4Expected goals2.7
47Shot attempts66
29Faceoffs won27
4Power plays4
90Penalty minutes90
35Hits35
14Blocked shots10
2Giveaways5
6Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:04

    xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1

  2. Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:56

    xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0

  3. Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:54

    xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

  4. Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk8:01

    xG 0.25–0.63 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling11:21

    xG 0.59–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0

  2. Ekman-Larsson – Mikkola2:06

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Montour – Forsling2:04

    xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel5:38

    xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0

  2. Watson – Motte – Eyssimont7:24

    xG 0.23–0.11 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0

  3. Kucherov – Point – Hagel4:41

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  4. Stamkos – Paul – Cirelli3:16

    xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestFleury – Cernak12:25

    xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1

  2. Hedman – Raddysh10:21

    xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2

  3. Raddysh – Lilleberg3:11

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.7 xGFLA 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #820 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.89 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).