Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 114 | 39 | 429 |
| STL | 06 | 17 | 18 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:22TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 17:14STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:45TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 7:29TORWilliam NylanderSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 18:52STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Torey Krug, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 19:22TORBobby McMannENAssists: Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:07STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15TORRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:04STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:22TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies9:57
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Holmberg8:18
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann9:07
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander10:25
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Liljegren17:42
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Lajoie – Rifai9:20
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit14:50
xG 0.33–0.39 (45%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:41
xG 0.43–0.34 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko8:34
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours11:02
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Hayes – Saad – Blais7:28
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Rosen7:31
xG 0.17–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Krug – Rosen2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Kessel2:05
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).