Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Edmonton Oilers 6, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 07 | 412 | 626 |
| ARI | 17 | 29 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:15ARINick BjugstadAssists: Lawson Crouse, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 6:07EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:53ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 10:52ARINick BjugstadAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 4:28EDMEvander KaneAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 4:54EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 6:31EDMEvander KaneAssists: Ryan McLeod, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 18:51EDMWarren FoegeleENAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.61 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:33ARINick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:31ARIMathew Dumba: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:32EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:44ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:35EDMEvander Kane: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – McLeod3:10
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – McDavid8:52
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Kane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins6:43
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Ryan – Holloway5:30
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse16:00
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais13:41
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard14:18
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKeller – Guenther – Cooley13:06
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:19
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton5:31
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Zucker – Carcone – McBain8:01
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring3:06
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Dumba – Moser17:21
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 22–15goals 1–1
- Durzi – Kesselring13:05
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).