Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 19 | 18 | 428 |
| TBL | 07 | 18 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45OTTTim StützleAssists: Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:35OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 15:49OTTMathieu JosephGWGAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 16:55TBLMitchell ChaffeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 4:01OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 4:36TBLBrayden PointAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:51TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:51OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:05TBLMitchell Chaffee: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:05OTTTim Stützle: Interference2 min
- P3 10:47TBLErik Cernak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle15:23
xG 0.75–0.41 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Tkachuk – Pinto11:57
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Greig10:20
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly6:37
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:42
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
- Chabot – Chychrun3:11
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Chychrun – Brannstrom13:59
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel4:49
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel2:45
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee7:24
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Glendening – Motte – Sheary2:49
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh14:33
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg12:36
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:21
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).