Wed, Feb 21, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 316 | 112 | 28 | 636 |
| ARI | 06 | 314 | 06 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56TORBobby McMannAssists: TJ Brodie, Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:01TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 15:27TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–0
- P2 4:28ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 5:38ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Joshua Brown · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 16:07TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 19:53ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi · Slap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 2:00TORWilliam NylanderAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 8:24TORJohn TavaresAssists: Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.06 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:09ARIMichael Carcone: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:58ARILogan Cooley: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:00ARIMathew Dumba: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:12ARIMichael Kesselring: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:10TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:00TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:00ARISean Durzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53ARISean Durzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53TORWilliam Nylander: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:20TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:53TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann6:38
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Gregor – Kampf – Holmberg8:51
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander7:22
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies7:59
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit10:35
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Lajoie – Rifai8:55
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Lajoie3:39
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton6:23
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli6:17
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Carcone – McBain7:15
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Keller – Guenther – Cooley7:45
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki12:03
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Dumba – Kesselring2:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser7:30
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).