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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 21, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Arizona Coyotes 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.

ARI winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:56Goal by McMann (Brodie, Liljegren)+15 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Brown, Keller, Välimäki, Guenther, Cooley · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Liljegren, Robertson, McMann

  3. P1 3:09Carcone: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Zucker, Bjugstad, Carcone, Durzi, Kesselring · TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  4. P1 3:50Shot by Marner, saved by Vejmelka4v5
  5. P1 5:01Goal by Matthews (Liljegren, Marner)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Dumba, Kerfoot, Crouse, Moser · TOR Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  6. P1 7:20Shot by Brown, saved by Samsonov
  7. P1 7:24Shot by Crouse, saved by Samsonov
  8. P1 7:53Shot by Gregor, saved by Vejmelka
  9. P1 8:59Shot by Kesselring, saved by Samsonov
  10. P1 9:05Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Samsonov
  11. P1 9:54Shot by Knies, saved by Vejmelka
  12. P1 10:25Shot by Nylander, saved by Vejmelka
  13. P1 12:11Shot by Moser, saved by Samsonov
  14. P1 12:34Shot by Gregor, saved by Vejmelka
  15. P1 13:57Shot by Nylander, saved by Vejmelka5v6
  16. P1 13:58Cooley: Too many men on the ice (2 min)5v6

    On ice: ARI Bjugstad, Brown, Välimäki, Guenther, Cooley · TOR Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies, Rifai

  17. P1 14:00Dumba: High sticking double minor (4 min)4v5

    On ice: ARI Bjugstad, Dumba, Kerfoot, Moser · TOR Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  18. P1 14:30Shot by Nylander, saved by Vejmelka3v5
  19. P1 14:47Shot by Marner, saved by Vejmelka3v5
  20. P1 15:07Shot by Tavares, saved by Vejmelka3v5
  21. P1 15:13Shot by Nylander, saved by Vejmelka3v5
  22. P1 15:27Goal by Nylander (Marner, Tavares)3v5+10 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Kerfoot, Brown, Moser · TOR Tavares, Domi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  23. P1 16:38Shot by Cooley, saved by Samsonov4v5
  24. P1 17:32Shot by Tavares, saved by Vejmelka4v5
  25. P1 18:12Kesselring: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Hayton, Kesselring · TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Gregor, Benoit

  26. P1 19:26Shot by Liljegren, saved by Vejmelka4v5
  27. P1 19:47Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Vejmelka4v5
  28. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  29. P2 0:00Period start
  30. P2 0:18Shot by Matthews, saved by Vejmelka
  31. P2 0:29Shot by Hayton, saved by Samsonov
  32. P2 0:44Shot by Brown, saved by Samsonov
  33. P2 2:10Tavares: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Crouse, Durzi, Maccelli, Moser · TOR Tavares, Lajoie, Robertson, McMann, Rifai

  34. P2 2:23Shot by Guenther, saved by Samsonov5v4
  35. P2 3:11Shot by Benoit, saved by Vejmelka5v4
  36. P2 3:49Shot by Cooley, saved by Samsonov5v4
  37. P2 4:28Goal by Maccelli (Bjugstad)+10 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Bjugstad, Brown, Välimäki, McBain, Maccelli · TOR Tavares, Gregor, Liljegren, Benoit, Robertson

  38. P2 4:40Shot by Domi, saved by Vejmelka
  39. P2 5:38Goal by Hayton (Kerfoot, Brown)+16 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Kerfoot, Brown, Schmaltz, Välimäki, Hayton · TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  40. P2 6:37Shot by McBain, saved by Samsonov
  41. P2 7:20Shot by Zucker, saved by Samsonov
  42. P2 7:58Shot by Brodie, saved by Vejmelka
  43. P2 8:00Domi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Moser, Cooley · TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren

  44. P2 8:00Durzi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Moser, Cooley · TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren

  45. P2 9:03Shot by Liljegren, saved by Vejmelka4v4
  46. P2 9:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Vejmelka4v4
  47. P2 10:52Shot by Domi, saved by Vejmelka
  48. P2 11:18Shot by Gregor, saved by Vejmelka
  49. P2 11:33Shot by Guenther, saved by Samsonov
  50. P2 11:59Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Vejmelka
  51. P2 15:14Shot by Moser, saved by Samsonov
  52. P2 15:51Shot by Nylander, saved by Vejmelka
  53. P2 15:53Durzi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Crouse, Durzi, Maccelli, Moser · TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Benoit

  54. P2 15:53Nylander: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Crouse, Durzi, Maccelli, Moser · TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Benoit

  55. P2 16:03Shot by Brodie, saved by Vejmelka4v4
  56. P2 16:07Goal by Matthews (Marner)4v4+17 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Kerfoot, Brown, Hayton, Moser · TOR Brodie, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  57. P2 18:20Holmberg: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Keller, Durzi, Hayton, Moser, Guenther · TOR Lajoie, Gregor, Kampf, Holmberg, Rifai

  58. P2 18:22Shot by Durzi, saved by Samsonov5v4
  59. P2 18:32Shot by Keller, saved by Samsonov5v4
  60. P2 19:21Shot by Hayton, saved by Samsonov5v4
  61. P2 19:53Goal by Guenther (Keller, Durzi)5v4+20 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Hayton, Guenther · TOR Nylander, Liljegren, Benoit, McMann

  62. P2 19:53Nylander: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: ARI Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Hayton, Guenther · TOR Nylander, Liljegren, Benoit, McMann

  63. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  64. P3 0:00Period start
  65. P3 1:25Shot by Durzi, saved by Samsonov5v4
  66. P3 2:00Goal by Nylander (Brodie)+17 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Zucker, Schmaltz, Keller, Durzi, Guenther · TOR Brodie, Domi, Nylander, Kampf, Benoit

  67. P3 3:13Shot by Zucker, saved by Samsonov
  68. P3 3:15Shot by Carcone, saved by Samsonov
  69. P3 4:42Shot by McCabe, saved by Vejmelka
  70. P3 6:32Shot by Knies, saved by Vejmelka
  71. P3 7:12Shot by Brown, saved by Samsonov
  72. P3 7:47Shot by Holmberg, saved by Vejmelka
  73. P3 8:24Goal by Tavares (Robertson, McMann)+5 pts WP

    On ice: ARI Kerfoot, Schmaltz, Durzi, Hayton, Kesselring · TOR Tavares, Benoit, Robertson, McMann, Rifai

  74. P3 10:04Shot by Kampf, saved by Vejmelka
  75. P3 10:48Shot by Carcone, saved by Samsonov
  76. P3 11:02Shot by Tavares, saved by Vejmelka
  77. P3 11:46Shot by Robertson, saved by Vejmelka
  78. P3 15:17Shot by Välimäki, saved by Samsonov
  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. P3 0:00Final