Thu, Feb 22, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 19 | 09 | 02 | 131 |
| DET | 05 | 011 | 112 | 12 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:48COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 12:02DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- OT 3:42DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:51DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:50COLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:25COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:24DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min
- P3 10:59COLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37DETAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:51COLLogan O'Connor: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen13:32
xG 1.18–0.33 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Johansen – Lehkonen7:47
xG 0.31–0.38 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Wagner – MacDermid – Kiviranta3:58
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor10:47
xG 0.33–0.91 (27%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:39
xG 0.84–0.37 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram10:35
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Makar – Byram2:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Larkin – Rasmussen9:05
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong4:11
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Perron – Copp – Veleno7:14
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen2:06
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere13:25
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot14:04
xG 0.80–0.75 (52%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider14:50
xG 0.52–1.30 (29%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).