Thu, Feb 22, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 111 | 25 | 524 |
| TBL | 010 | 17 | 215 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Beck Malenstyn · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:19WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Joel Edmundson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 9:16TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 12:14WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 2:42TBLNick PaulAssists: Conor Sheary, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 3:06TBLTyler MotteAssists: Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 15:01WSHRasmus SandinGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:58WSHConnor McMichaelENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:22TBLMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min
- P1 12:26WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P2 5:53TBLCole Koepke: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:20TBLMichael Eyssimont: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:27WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:25WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Protas6:30
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Wilson – Mantha – McMichael4:41
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Oshie – Mantha – Strome4:47
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – McMichael4:27
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Bear6:37
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk2:38
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – van Riemsdyk13:34
xG 0.47–0.51 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:22
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Point – Hagel – Chaffee2:06
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Sheary3:28
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee3:46
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix4:04
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Fleury – Perbix4:02
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- de Haan – Raddysh4:15
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).