Sat, Feb 24, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 17 | 15 | 421 |
| NYI | 06 | 09 | 219 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12TBLNick PaulAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 5:34TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:00TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 13:44NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 17:25NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:29TBLLuke GlendeningENAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:05NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:14TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:32NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:27TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:15TBLMax Crozier: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:40TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel11:42
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee7:36
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Chaffee2:09
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Sheary7:20
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Lilleberg3:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Crozier2:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier4:09
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Horvat – Barzal4:26
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas3:51
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom6:00
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal7:05
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho10:08
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov13:11
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock2:11
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).