Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 214 | 14 | 430 |
| COL | 211 | 09 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:07COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 13:42TORTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 14:45TORTyler BertuzziAssists: William Nylander, Max Domi · Snap, 0.35 xG2–2
- P2 16:48TORMitch MarnerAssists: Matthew Knies, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 4:41COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 17:09TORTyler BertuzziPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.32 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:49TORSimon Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08COLRoss Colton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:56COLMikko Rantanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies12:22
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Holmberg7:04
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:32
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann9:11
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rielly – Lagesson12:07
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly2:44
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- McCabe – Benoit13:19
xG 0.10–0.48 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor12:36
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen4:45
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Parise – Johansen – Lehkonen6:53
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen9:46
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:55
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Byram13:40
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Manson – Girard13:51
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).