Sun, Feb 25, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 210 | 28 | 427 |
| NJD | 06 | 110 | 03 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:27TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 4:15TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 6:01NJDTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 9:38TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 18:25TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05NJDAlexander Holtz: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:36TBLNick Paul: Interference2 min
- P1 16:49NJDLuke Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:11TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:33TBLTyler Motte: Interference2 min
- P3 5:25TBLEmil Lilleberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:24NJDSimon Nemec: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:59
xG 1.52–1.05 (59%)attempts 18–16goals 3–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee8:27
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Chaffee2:14
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Sheary8:04
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Lilleberg2:04
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak8:22
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix4:02
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Bratt – Hischier4:14
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Lazar3:55
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nosek – Holtz – Halonen7:14
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – Meier3:03
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Marino6:26
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Hughes12:12
xG 0.76–0.70 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Bahl – Nemec5:51
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).