Sun, Feb 25, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 07 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 232 |
| BUF | 08 | 112 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40CARTony DeAngeloAssists: Michael Bunting, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:27BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 14:42CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 15:55BUFOwen PowerAssists: Peyton Krebs, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 3. BUF Owen Power stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 7. BUF Casey Mittelstadt scored
- 8. CAR Martin Necas stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:58CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:59CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:12BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Necas – Drury11:39
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi8:46
xG 0.46–0.08 (86%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov9:42
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook2:29
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Pesce14:41
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 25–13goals 0–1
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:23
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin15:46
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 20–21goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Peterka – Benson11:02
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson13:19
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Robinson7:53
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Cozens12:46
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:49
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:43
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 26–16goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson9:55
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).