Sun, Feb 25, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 110 | 111 | 110 | 01 | 332 |
| WPG | 314 | 011 | 06 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 13:45ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 14:45WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 16:34WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 6:11ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Lawson Crouse · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 1:04ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 0:33WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:57WPGNino Niederreiter: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:57ARIMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:32ARIJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
- P1 15:42ARIDylan Guenther: Interference2 min
- P1 17:36WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min
- P2 10:35ARINick Schmaltz: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton4:38
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli13:24
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Cooley3:38
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton4:50
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Kesselring14:49
xG 1.05–0.35 (75%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Brown – Välimäki12:56
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Durzi – Moser2:24
xG 0.01–0.08 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Iafallo11:07
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:17
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Barron – Kupari – Perfetti6:02
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi16:06
xG 0.49–1.06 (31%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg11:01
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:55
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:42
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).