Sat, Mar 2, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Buffalo Sabres 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 28 | 07 | 224 |
| BUF | 19 | 213 | 413 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55BUFJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:54BUFDylan CozensSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 1:46VGKBrendan BrissonPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 4:28VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 14:46BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 2:20BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt · Bat, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:26BUFOwen PowerAssists: Jacob Bryson, Eric Robinson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 12:18BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Owen Power, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 17:12BUFDylan CozensSHAssists: Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:37BUFAlex Tuch: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:54VGKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40VGKIvan Barbashev: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Morelli – Brisson6:12
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter12:46
xG 0.65–0.69 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Morelli3:02
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Denisenko7:22
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:47
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:53
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hague2:06
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Thompson13:26
xG 1.07–0.16 (87%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt11:35
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Robinson – Krebs10:17
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson9:33
xG 0.53–0.82 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin19:29
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 33–16goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power2:32
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power13:32
xG 0.93–0.79 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).