Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 06 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
| TBL | 04 | 213 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:34MTLJake EvansAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 7:44TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:49TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:23MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Cole Caufield, Arber Xhekaj · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 10:18TBLTyler MotteSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Brandon Hagel stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 6. MTL Joel Armia stopped
- 7. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 8. MTL Jesse Ylonen stopped
- 9. TBL Michael Eyssimont stopped
- 10. MTL Juraj Slafkovský stopped
- 11. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 12. MTL Joshua Roy stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:25TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:25TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:25MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:55MTLBrendan Gallagher: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:30TBLMitchell Chaffee: Boarding2 min
- OT 1:09MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Evans11:42
xG 1.17–0.19 (86%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Pearson – White – Ylonen6:59
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský15:25
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Armia – Newhook – Roy10:01
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris10:47
xG 1.32–0.17 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj14:27
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Savard – Harris4:07
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point9:43
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Chaffee7:32
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee2:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Paul2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Lilleberg2:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier11:44
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak13:20
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).