Mon, Mar 4, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 213 | 17 | 17 | 427 |
| TOR | 010 | 013 | 110 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:42BOSPavel ZachaPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 5:07BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie Coyle, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 3:52TORJohn TavaresAssists: Morgan Rielly, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 10:35BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:25BOSKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:24TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:57BOSMason Lohrei: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:09TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:26BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Heinen – Zacha11:16
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk9:32
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie9:45
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Lauko8:53
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Wotherspoon2:43
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:23
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon11:39
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:46
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Reaves – Kampf – Holmberg6:22
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander10:10
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – McMann10:49
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin11:04
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Rielly – Liljegren2:04
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit12:58
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).