Tue, Mar 5, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 19 | 211 | 531 |
| NJD | 13 | 114 | 17 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54FLANick CousinsAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:30FLAEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 11:45NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:01NJDTimo MeierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 12:37FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 5:33FLANick CousinsGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 11:16NJDColin MillerAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:52FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:47NJDLuke Hughes: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 10:32FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:26NJDKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:17FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:45FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart12:17
xG 1.58–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell10:39
xG 0.26–0.26 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:30
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk12:59
xG 0.22–0.73 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling16:45
xG 1.44–0.14 (91%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov14:33
xG 0.57–0.85 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola15:09
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes4:13
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Lazar – Mercer – Holtz2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Toffoli – Meier7:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tierney – Lazar – Mercer10:38
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hughes15:07
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl11:22
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
- Siegenthaler – Marino19:12
xG 0.29–1.56 (16%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).