Thu, Mar 7, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 011 | 07 | 125 |
| CAR | 18 | 113 | 218 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53MTLJoshua RoyAssists: Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:02CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:35CARStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Jack Drury, Jalen Chatfield · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 15:31CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:57CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:07CARMartin Necas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:07MTLJesse Ylonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:58CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:50MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:30MTLAlex Newhook: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:19CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 16:33CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:42CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:43MTLAlex Newhook: Holding2 min
- P3 14:52CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Armia – Newhook – Roy6:57
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans7:51
xG 0.42–0.47 (48%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Pearson – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard4:48
xG 0.05–0.58 (7%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:37
xG 0.46–1.01 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Savard – Xhekaj11:27
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
- Matheson – Guhle10:59
xG 0.44–0.95 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Harris – Struble13:07
xG 0.29–1.50 (16%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi4:59
xG 0.69–0.05 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:28
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis6:28
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Noesen – Necas – Drury11:07
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield9:42
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce11:51
xG 1.28–0.74 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin9:47
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).