Thu, Mar 7, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 2, Nashville Predators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 07 | 112 | 228 |
| NSH | 29 | 08 | 27 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:23BUFBowen ByramAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:15NSHLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Mark Jankowski, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 1:49NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Gustav Nyquist · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 12:52BUFOwen PowerAssists: Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:50BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:56BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:34NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:51BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 10:45NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Greenway
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson6:56
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Girgensons5:53
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Rousek5:17
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Robinson7:27
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dahlin – Byram17:17
xG 0.58–0.75 (43%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power14:50
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Clifton – Bryson10:46
xG 0.28–1.00 (22%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:44
xG 1.17–0.39 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista4:48
xG 0.14–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Gurianov – Glass3:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:44
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:47
xG 0.82–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier14:41
xG 0.99–0.44 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Schenn11:25
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).