Sat, Mar 9, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 210 | 18 | 327 |
| MTL | 19 | 013 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38MTLMike MathesonAssists: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 0:39TORBobby McMannAssists: David Kampf · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:41TORMax DomiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 5:05MTLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 13:14TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Jake McCabe, Max Domi · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 9:43MTLJake Evans: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:09TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 13:48TORBobby McMann: Kneeing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 4:15TORTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01TORCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Jarnkrok – Domi9:53
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Kampf – McMann – Knies11:58
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Dewar – Holmberg7:17
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Nylander – Matthews12:10
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren2:59
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – McCabe14:54
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin11:27
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:40
xG 0.91–0.62 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:50
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Pearson – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard5:14
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Armia – Newhook – Roy8:21
xG 0.18–0.28 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle15:28
xG 1.07–0.15 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Harris – Struble11:33
xG 0.42–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Savard – Xhekaj14:59
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).