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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 9, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montréal Canadiens 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:38Goal by Matheson (Caufield, Slafkovský)+16 pts WP

    On ice: MTL Matheson, Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, Slafkovský · TOR Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Matthews, Lyubushkin

  3. P1 1:30Shot by Edmundson, saved by Montembeault
  4. P1 2:56Shot by Harvey-Pinard, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 3:02Shot by Guhle, saved by Samsonov
  6. P1 3:35Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  7. P1 4:01Shot by Domi, saved by Montembeault
  8. P1 7:24Shot by Harris, saved by Samsonov
  9. P1 10:09Shot by Nylander, saved by Montembeault
  10. P1 10:59Shot by Suzuki, saved by Samsonov
  11. P1 12:02Shot by Savard, saved by Samsonov
  12. P1 12:42Shot by Slafkovský, saved by Samsonov
  13. P1 12:57Shot by Slafkovský, saved by Samsonov
  14. P1 13:58Shot by Domi, saved by Montembeault
  15. P1 14:01Shot by Lyubushkin, saved by Montembeault
  16. P1 15:41Shot by Nylander, saved by Montembeault
  17. P1 16:16Shot by McCabe, saved by Montembeault
  18. P1 18:14Shot by Knies, saved by Montembeault
  19. P1 19:30Shot by Domi, saved by Montembeault
  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 0:39Goal by McMann (Kampf)+19 pts WP

    On ice: MTL Savard, Armia, Newhook, Roy, Xhekaj · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Kampf, McMann, Knies

  23. P2 1:42Shot by Matthews, saved by Montembeault
  24. P2 2:39Shot by Caufield, saved by Samsonov
  25. P2 2:40Shot by Suzuki, saved by Samsonov
  26. P2 3:14Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  27. P2 4:19Shot by Anderson, saved by Samsonov
  28. P2 6:52Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  29. P2 9:43Evans: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Savard, Gallagher, Evans, Xhekaj, Slafkovský · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Domi

  30. P2 10:05Shot by Armia, saved by Samsonov4v5
  31. P2 10:09Rielly: Holding (2 min)4v5

    On ice: MTL Savard, Armia, Matheson, Harvey-Pinard · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Matthews

  32. P2 10:19Shot by Kampf, saved by Montembeault4v4
  33. P2 10:54Shot by Matthews, saved by Montembeault4v4
  34. P2 10:58Shot by Matthews, saved by Montembeault4v4
  35. P2 11:11Shot by Caufield, saved by Samsonov4v4
  36. P2 12:18Shot by Kampf, saved by Montembeault
  37. P2 12:48Shot by Gallagher, saved by Samsonov
  38. P2 13:19Shot by Guhle, saved by Samsonov
  39. P2 13:48McMann: Kneeing (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Gallagher, Matheson, Anderson, Evans, Guhle · TOR Brodie, McCabe, Kampf, McMann, Knies

  40. P2 15:57Shot by McMann, saved by Montembeault
  41. P2 18:41Goal by Domi (Jarnkrok, Brodie)+24 pts WP

    On ice: MTL Gallagher, Anderson, Evans, Harris, Struble · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi

  42. P2 18:49Shot by Roy, saved by Samsonov
  43. P2 18:52Shot by Savard, saved by Samsonov
  44. P2 18:57Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  45. P2 19:07Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  46. P2 19:39Shot by Rielly, saved by Montembeault
  47. P2 19:59Shot by Rielly, saved by Montembeault
  48. P2 0:00Savard: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Savard, Suzuki, Caufield, Xhekaj, Slafkovský · TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi, Liljegren

  49. P2 0:00Tavares: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Savard, Suzuki, Caufield, Xhekaj, Slafkovský · TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi, Liljegren

  50. P2 0:00Xhekaj: Roughing removing opponents helmet (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Savard, Suzuki, Caufield, Xhekaj, Slafkovský · TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi, Liljegren

  51. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 3:32Shot by Matheson, saved by Samsonov
  54. P3 4:15Liljegren: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: MTL Matheson, Anderson, Evans, Suzuki, Harvey-Pinard, Guhle · TOR Reaves, Domi, Matthews, Liljegren, Lyubushkin

  55. P3 5:05Goal by Newhook (Slafkovský, Matheson)5v4+26 pts WP

    On ice: MTL Matheson, Suzuki, Caufield, Newhook, Slafkovský · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Dewar

  56. P3 7:39Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  57. P3 8:08Shot by McMann, saved by Montembeault
  58. P3 8:31Shot by Nylander, saved by Montembeault
  59. P3 9:27Shot by Pezzetta, saved by Samsonov
  60. P3 10:07Shot by Reaves, saved by Montembeault
  61. P3 10:31Shot by Xhekaj, saved by Samsonov
  62. P3 13:12Shot by McCabe, saved by Montembeault
  63. P3 13:14Goal by Tavares (McCabe, Domi)+37 pts WP

    On ice: MTL Pearson, Pezzetta, Harris, Harvey-Pinard, Struble · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Domi

  64. P3 13:42Shot by Liljegren, saved by Montembeault
  65. P3 13:47Shot by Knies, saved by Montembeault
  66. P3 14:14Shot by Guhle, saved by Samsonov
  67. P3 14:31Shot by Caufield, saved by Samsonov
  68. P3 16:15Shot by Reaves, saved by Montembeault
  69. P3 17:01Jarnkrok: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: MTL Armia, Matheson, Suzuki, Guhle, Roy · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Holmberg

  70. P3 17:49Shot by Caufield, saved by Samsonov5v4
  71. P3 19:21Shot by Slafkovský, saved by Samsonov6v5
  72. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  73. P3 0:00Final6v5