Tue, Mar 12, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 112 | 15 | 324 |
| BUF | 413 | 314 | 012 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:09BUFBowen ByramAssists: Zach Benson, Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 12:37DETBen ChiarotAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 13:00BUFZach BensonAssists: Jordan Greenway, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P1 15:29BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Zach Benson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 4:27BUFConnor CliftonAssists: Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 9:05BUFBowen ByramAssists: Tage Thompson, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–6
- P2 9:29DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–6
- P2 13:49BUFJJ PeterkaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
- P3 17:32DETJake WalmanAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.10 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:05DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:47DETChristian Fischer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:20BUFTyson Jost: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57BUFZemgus Girgensons: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:55DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min
- P3 10:33BUFJacob Bryson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Kane – Compher – Rasmussen3:27
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Berggren2:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen3:19
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere12:15
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Maatta – Walman3:16
xG 0.00–0.20 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:02
xG 0.62–0.96 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 1–5
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Tuch – Thompson8:26
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 3–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Benson7:54
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Peterka6:25
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Robinson7:27
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram13:35
xG 1.38–0.43 (76%)attempts 20–9goals 4–0
- Clifton – Bryson11:42
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power10:50
xG 0.38–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).