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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 12, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:57Shot by Veleno, saved by Luukkonen
  3. P1 1:07Goal by Tuch, unassisted+16 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Byram · DET Petry, Chiarot, Veleno, Berggren, Raymond

  4. P1 2:54Shot by Thompson, saved by Lyon
  5. P1 4:01Shot by Power, saved by Lyon6v5
  6. P1 4:05Perron: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Jokiharju, Krebs, Cozens, Peterka, Power · DET Compher, Fabbri, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider

  7. P1 4:18Shot by Dahlin, saved by Lyon5v4
  8. P1 5:07Shot by Tuch, saved by Lyon5v4
  9. P1 7:23Shot by Benson, saved by Lyon
  10. P1 9:48Shot by Jokiharju, saved by Lyon
  11. P1 10:06Shot by Benson, saved by Lyon
  12. P1 10:09Goal by Byram (Benson, Greenway)+12 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Greenway, Dahlin, Byram, Cozens, Benson · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fabbri, Fischer, Sprong

  13. P1 12:37Goal by Chiarot (Raymond, Berggren)+12 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Jokiharju, Krebs, Peterka, Power · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fischer, Berggren, Raymond

  14. P1 12:53Shot by Dahlin, saved by Lyon
  15. P1 13:00Goal by Benson (Greenway, Dahlin)+12 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Greenway, Dahlin, Byram, Cozens, Benson · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fabbri, Fischer, Sprong

  16. P1 14:34Shot by Kane, saved by Luukkonen
  17. P1 15:18Shot by Greenway, saved by Lyon
  18. P1 15:29Goal by Skinner (Benson, Cozens)+8 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Jokiharju, Cozens, Power, Benson · DET Petry, Chiarot, Compher, Berggren, Raymond

  19. P1 16:19Shot by Kane, saved by Luukkonen
  20. P1 19:05Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Luukkonen
  21. P1 19:12Shot by Kane, saved by Luukkonen
  22. P1 19:36Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Luukkonen
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:58Shot by Byram, saved by Reimer
  26. P2 1:37Shot by Tuch, saved by Reimer
  27. P2 3:22Shot by Byram, saved by Reimer
  28. P2 3:44Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Luukkonen
  29. P2 3:46Shot by Raymond, saved by Luukkonen
  30. P2 4:27Goal by Clifton (Thompson)+4 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Clifton, Tuch, Thompson, Power · DET Copp, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond

  31. P2 4:44Shot by Sprong, saved by Luukkonen
  32. P2 4:47Fischer: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Jokiharju, Krebs, Peterka, Power · DET Maatta, Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Fischer, Sprong

  33. P2 5:35Shot by Cozens, saved by Reimer5v4
  34. P2 6:06Shot by Skinner, saved by Reimer5v4
  35. P2 6:17Shot by Thompson, saved by Reimer5v4
  36. P2 6:23Shot by Walman, saved by Luukkonen5v4
  37. P2 6:50Shot by Cozens, saved by Reimer
  38. P2 6:51Shot by Cozens, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 7:08Shot by Fabbri, saved by Luukkonen
  40. P2 7:34Shot by Greenway, saved by Reimer
  41. P2 9:03Shot by Thompson, saved by Reimer
  42. P2 9:05Goal by Byram (Thompson, Girgensons)+1 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Byram · DET Walman, Fischer, Sprong, Berggren, Seider

  43. P2 9:20Jost: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Olofsson, Jost, Jokiharju, Robinson, Power · DET Maatta, Gostisbehere, Fabbri, DeBrincat, Raymond

  44. P2 9:27Shot by Raymond, saved by Luukkonen4v5
  45. P2 9:29Goal by Raymond (Fabbri, Kane)4v5+1 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Clifton, Greenway, Cozens, Power · DET Kane, Gostisbehere, Fabbri, DeBrincat, Raymond

  46. P2 9:58Shot by Compher, saved by Luukkonen
  47. P2 11:07Shot by Fabbri, saved by Luukkonen
  48. P2 11:08Skinner: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Jokiharju, Krebs, Peterka, Power · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fabbri, Rasmussen, Raymond

  49. P2 13:04Shot by Compher, saved by Luukkonen4v5
  50. P2 13:49Goal by Peterka, unassisted+1 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Thompson, Jokiharju, Peterka, Power · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fischer, Sprong, Rasmussen

  51. P2 14:02Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Luukkonen
  52. P2 15:16Shot by Berggren, saved by Luukkonen
  53. P2 15:57Girgensons: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Byram · DET Gostisbehere, Walman, Rasmussen, Berggren, Seider

  54. P2 18:04Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 0:30Shot by Cozens, saved by Reimer
  58. P3 1:22Shot by Walman, saved by Luukkonen
  59. P3 1:36Shot by Bryson, saved by Reimer
  60. P3 3:17Shot by Maatta, saved by Luukkonen
  61. P3 4:53Shot by Bryson, saved by Reimer
  62. P3 5:55Fabbri: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Olofsson, Jost, Bryson, Dahlin · DET Maatta, Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Sprong, Rasmussen

  63. P3 6:31Shot by Cozens, saved by Reimer5v4
  64. P3 7:44Chiarot: Interference (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Olofsson, Thompson, Krebs, Power · DET Petry, Chiarot, Fischer, Raymond

  65. P3 9:45Shot by Peterka, saved by Reimer
  66. P3 10:33Bryson: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Clifton, Greenway, Bryson, Cozens, Benson · DET Kane, Maatta, Gostisbehere, Compher, Raymond

  67. P3 12:17Shot by Tuch, saved by Reimer4v5
  68. P3 12:18Shot by Tuch, saved by Reimer4v5
  69. P3 15:15Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  70. P3 15:16Shot by Girgensons, saved by Reimer
  71. P3 16:46Shot by Jost, saved by Reimer
  72. P3 17:32Goal by Walman (Gostisbehere, Maatta)0 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Olofsson, Jost, Jokiharju, Robinson, Power · DET Kane, Gostisbehere, Copp, Walman, DeBrincat

  73. P3 18:47Shot by Skinner, saved by Reimer
  74. P3 19:15Shot by Jost, saved by Reimer
  75. P3 19:42Shot by Berggren, saved by Luukkonen
  76. P3 19:44Shot by Fabbri, saved by Luukkonen
  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. P3 0:00Final